OMAHA, Neb. (AP) — There were only two Omaha homicides in the first three months of 2016, the fewest to begin a year in at least a decade.

Last year, when there was a record 50 homicides, 14 of them occurred during the first three months of the year.

A retired Omaha police captain, Mike Butera, oversaw homicide investigations in the 1990s and early 2000s, and he says homicides are cyclical, prone to lulls and to jump in number. Butera says Omaha is “probably going to see an uptick.”

He says that, as the weather warms, outdoor crowds, open-air drug dealing and more drive-by shootings could lead to more killings.